Operations

Grid Connection Queues: Why Renewables Are Stalling

Why the world grid interconnection queues have exploded, what utilities and grid operators are doing, and how the wait times affect renewable deployment.

Renewable projects are stuck waiting 5 to 10 years to connect to the grid. Over 2,600 GW of proposed generation sits in US interconnection queues, most of it renewable. This guide covers why queues have exploded, what is being done, and what it means for climate targets.

Scale of the queue

~2,600 GW
US interconnection queue 2024
~95%
of queue is renewables and storage
5 to 10 years
typical current wait

What the interconnection queue is

To connect a new generation project to the grid, developer files interconnection request with regional grid operator or utility. Studies determine required grid upgrades and cost allocation. Once complete, developer signs interconnection agreement and receives interconnection service. Queue is the backlog of pending studies.

Who manages queues

RegionQueue manager
PJM InterconnectionMid Atlantic and Midwest
MISOMidwest
SPPCentral states
ERCOTTexas
CAISOCalifornia
NYISONew York
ISO New EnglandNortheast
Non ISO utility service territoriesIndividual utility processes

Why queues exploded

  • Renewable cost competitiveness surge post 2020.
  • IRA passage 2022 accelerated project proposals.
  • Storage economics improving.
  • Coal retirement accelerating replacement need.
  • Corporate PPA demand growing.
  • Speculative development ("optionality" applications).
  • Transmission constraints in high resource areas.

Typical current timeline

StageApproximate duration
Feasibility study6 to 12 months
System impact study12 to 24 months
Facilities study6 to 18 months
Interconnection agreement6 to 12 months
Transmission upgrade construction2 to 5 years
Total from application to service5 to 10 years
Common trap. Wait times have grown as queue length grew. Grid operators studying each project sequentially, one at a time, could not keep up. Studies would identify large network upgrades needed, but those upgrades themselves take years and depend on which other projects proceed. The whole process reached breakdown around 2023.

Reform efforts

FERC Order 2023

FERC Order 2023 (July 2023) requires cluster study approach instead of serial one at a time. Firm deadlines. Cost caps. Withdrawal penalties. Should reduce delay by 40 to 60 percent when fully implemented.

FERC Order 2023-A

Amended reforms addressing implementation issues. Ongoing rulemaking as first cluster studies proceed.

Regional reforms

MISO, PJM, CAISO, and others implementing FERC Order 2023 with regional variations. First cluster studies now underway.

The cluster study approach

Instead of studying projects sequentially, group projects into clusters. Study cluster impact together. Allocate transmission upgrade costs across cluster. Once cluster study completes, projects can execute agreements much faster. Should reduce total queue time significantly.

The transmission problem

Key insight. Even after interconnection queue reform, transmission buildout is the deeper problem. Best renewable resources are far from load centres. Transmission takes 10+ years to plan, permit, and build. Without major transmission expansion, interconnection reform only addresses part of the problem.

Queue withdrawals

Many queued projects never build. Speculative applications withdraw when interconnection cost estimates come in high. Some clusters see 30 to 50 percent withdrawal rates. This makes signal noisy on actual demand.

Getting projects built

Projects that clear interconnection then face permitting, siting, financing, and construction. Even without queue delays, project completion timeline is 4 to 7 years. Queue reform accelerates ready projects but does not fix the entire pipeline.

Storage queue growth

Standalone battery storage is fastest growing queue segment. Post IRA storage tax credits made standalone economic. Storage now over 30 percent of some queues.

Cost allocation

Transmission upgrades required by interconnection have historically been paid by the interconnecting project. This can put multi hundred million dollar burden on a single project. FERC allowing more upgrade cost sharing across projects and network beneficiaries.

Global context

UK grid queue 12+ years to connect. National Grid ESO reforming queue management. EU member states similar problems. China less transparent but managed. Australia REZ programme addresses at regional scale.

AI and data centre load

Rapid data centre load growth adds interconnection demand from both generation and load sides. Compounds queue pressure. Big Tech is increasingly investing in new transmission and generation directly.

Where interconnection is going

  • Cluster studies proceeding at all major RTOs.
  • Wait times expected to decline 30 to 50 percent by 2027.
  • Transmission remains major constraint.
  • Regional transmission planning reform.
  • Growing role for private transmission developers.
  • Big Tech direct investment in generation and transmission.
  • Federal permitting reform continued attempts.

Climate implications

Common trap. The interconnection queue is arguably the biggest single obstacle to US climate targets. Even with subsidies and public support, renewables cannot deploy fast enough if the grid cannot connect them. Reform is happening but slower than climate timelines require.

Frequently asked questions

How big is the queue?

About 2,600 GW in US alone.

How long do projects wait?

5 to 10 years currently.

What is being done?

FERC Order 2023 cluster study reform.

Is UK better?

No, worse. 12+ years typical.

Why do projects withdraw?

Interconnection cost too high, project uneconomic.

Is transmission the deeper problem?

Yes largely.

Do data centres compete?

Yes for grid capacity.

Will renewables slow?

Likely if queue reform inadequate.

What about storage?

Standalone storage huge share of queue.

Where can I read more?

FERC orders, RTO websites, LBNL queue reports.

Summary

Grid interconnection queues have exploded due to renewable and storage cost competitiveness and IRA acceleration. Over 2,600 GW waiting in US queues alone. FERC Order 2023 requires cluster study reform. Transmission buildout remains deeper problem. Wait times should decline 30 to 50 percent by 2027 with reforms fully implemented. Even with reform, transmission planning limits how fast renewables can scale. Arguably biggest single obstacle to climate targets.

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